# Citation File Format — https://citation-file-format.github.io/
# GitHub auto-renders a "Cite this repository" button when this file
# exists at the repo root. Pairs with /api/methodology.bib + /api/methodology.ris
# for full academic-citation triple coverage.

cff-version: 1.2.0
message: "If you reference the Calibration Ledger methodology, please cite it as below."
type: software
title: "Calibration Ledger Methodology"
abstract: >-
  Methodology for scoring predictive sources by calibrated accuracy. Uses
  Brier scores (Brier 1950), Murphy decomposition (Reliability minus
  Resolution plus Uncertainty, Murphy 1973), per-bucket calibration curves,
  append-only time-stamped records, and domain-specific accuracy windows.
  Foundations grounded in Tetlock and Gardner (2015). Source-type taxonomy
  covers AI models, human forecasters, analyst firms, scientific papers,
  review platforms, and prediction markets.

authors:
  - family-names: "de Vries"
    given-names: "Paulo"
    affiliation: "editnative.com"
    country: NL

repository-code: "https://calibrationledger.com/methodology/"
url: "https://calibrationledger.com/"
license: CC-BY-4.0
version: "1.1"
date-released: "2026-04-25"
keywords:
  - forecasting
  - calibration
  - Brier score
  - probabilistic prediction
  - AI evaluation
  - hallucination measurement
  - prediction markets
  - Murphy decomposition
  - append-only
  - scoring rules

# Foundational works the methodology builds on.
references:
  - type: article
    authors:
      - family-names: Brier
        given-names: "Glenn W."
    title: "Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability"
    journal: "Monthly Weather Review"
    volume: 78
    issue: 1
    start: 1
    end: 3
    year: 1950
    doi: "10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2"

  - type: article
    authors:
      - family-names: Murphy
        given-names: "Allan H."
    title: "A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score"
    journal: "Journal of Applied Meteorology"
    volume: 12
    start: 595
    end: 600
    year: 1973
    doi: "10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<0595:ANVPOT>2.0.CO;2"

  - type: book
    authors:
      - family-names: Tetlock
        given-names: "Philip E."
      - family-names: Gardner
        given-names: "Dan"
    title: "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"
    publisher:
      name: "Crown Publishers"
    year: 2015
    isbn: "978-0804136693"

# Identifiers — additional anchors for cross-reference.
identifiers:
  - type: url
    value: "https://calibrationledger.com/api/methodology.json"
    description: "Machine-readable JSON-LD twin with SHA-256 @graph integrity"
  - type: url
    value: "https://calibrationledger.com/api/methodology.bib"
    description: "BibTeX equivalent (citation key: calibrationledger_methodology_v1_1)"
  - type: url
    value: "https://calibrationledger.com/api/methodology.ris"
    description: "RIS equivalent for legacy reference managers"
  - type: url
    value: "https://calibrationledger.com/feed.xml"
    description: "Atom 1.0 changelog feed for revision tracking"